Thursday, May 8, 2008

Nothing's changed: Clinton is still more electable than Obama

I still don't understand this nomination argument. The very concept of it makes no sense. A certain number of delegates are needed to clinch the nomination. There's no nominee until someone reaches that number. If no one can reach that number, it has to be decided by a committee. Though rarely applied, those are the rules. And here we are, needing to apply those rules. So why are people acting like the rules don't exist? Why are people saying one candidate--and the more electable of the two--should drop out of race for the nomination?

The only thing Barack Obama has going for him is that Democrats currently prefer him (although mildly) over Hillary Clinton as the nominee. But that doesn't matter. What matters is which of the two has a better chance of beating John McCain in the fall. And by that measure, Hillary's got it all over Obama.

Nationally, Hillary's got an edge over McCain of 2 - 5 points. Obama's got an edge too...but it's only 1 - 2 points. (For whichever wins the nomination, this edge will increase as Democrats circle the wagons. But I'd rather build on an existing 5 point lead, wouldn't you?)

Looking at polling for the upcoming primaries, Hillary will win West Virgina. She'll cream Obama in Kentucky. She'll win Oregon and it's not even fathomable that she might lose Puerto Rico. (I don't see any recent polls for South Dakota or Montana.)

You've heard of the "battleground states" which Democrats must win in a general election to clinch the presidency. Three such states--Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida--are always mentioned as being critically important since a Democrat typically can't win without taking at least two of them. Let's take a look at the most recent current polling for those states...
  • Pennsylvania: Hillary beats McCain by more than 6 points. Obama is 0.2 points behind McCain.
  • Ohio: Hillary's 7 points ahead of McCain. Obama is behind McCain by 1 point.
  • Florida: Hillary is 0.3 points behind McCain. Obama loses to McCain by a landslide.
People can argue over how superdelegates should draw their conclusions and people can argue over who has more of the popular vote so far... People can argue about a lot of things. What cannot be argued, however, is a cold, hard fact that hasn't changed since day one: Hillary Clinton is more electable than Barack Obama.

If the superdelegates allow Barack Obama to become the nominee, there's no saying what will happen. (Although it's a pretty safe bet the GOP will tear him to shreds based on his inexperience, his name, and yes: his race.) If the superdelegates do what's right for the party and nominate Hillary Clinton, there's a much stronger chance we'll have a Democrat in the White House come 2009. What else matters?

Sunday, May 4, 2008

"Nobody" named John Rich doesn't like Paula Abdul

Reuters reports:

Country artist and upcoming "Nashville Star" judge John Rich laid into "American Idol" judge Paula Abdul for her lack of attentiveness during a recent episode.

"'American Idol' infuriates me as an artist," Rich, of the multiplatinum country duo Big & Rich, said at an NBC press event in Pasadena, California. "They're being fake about it. When you can't make a cognizant comment about someone's performance and you're commenting on something that happened the day before, why don't you just walk up onstage and slap them right across the face while you're at it? As an artist, I would just flip them the bird and walk off the stage. ... She wasn't even paying attention to what was going on."

Question:  Who the fuck is John Rich and why does he think anyone cares what he thinks?

At any rate, American Idol had a pretty good smackdown in response to this nobody's ramblings...

In response to Rich's comments, Fox released a statement: "John Rich's ungentlemanly and opportunistic comments are particularly disturbing considering the fact he attended a taping of 'American Idol' last April, told producers, judges and performers he enjoyed himself and also did an interview with a crew from 'American Idol Extra' where he was extremely complimentary toward the show."