The only thing Barack Obama has going for him is that Democrats currently prefer him (although mildly) over Hillary Clinton as the nominee. But that doesn't matter. What matters is which of the two has a better chance of beating John McCain in the fall. And by that measure, Hillary's got it all over Obama.
Nationally, Hillary's got an edge over McCain of 2 - 5 points. Obama's got an edge too...but it's only 1 - 2 points. (For whichever wins the nomination, this edge will increase as Democrats circle the wagons. But I'd rather build on an existing 5 point lead, wouldn't you?)
Looking at polling for the upcoming primaries, Hillary will win West Virgina. She'll cream Obama in Kentucky. She'll win Oregon and it's not even fathomable that she might lose Puerto Rico. (I don't see any recent polls for South Dakota or Montana.)
You've heard of the "battleground states" which Democrats must win in a general election to clinch the presidency. Three such states--Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida--are always mentioned as being critically important since a Democrat typically can't win without taking at least two of them. Let's take a look at the most recent current polling for those states...
- Pennsylvania: Hillary beats McCain by more than 6 points. Obama is 0.2 points behind McCain.
- Ohio: Hillary's 7 points ahead of McCain. Obama is behind McCain by 1 point.
- Florida: Hillary is 0.3 points behind McCain. Obama loses to McCain by a landslide.
If the superdelegates allow Barack Obama to become the nominee, there's no saying what will happen. (Although it's a pretty safe bet the GOP will tear him to shreds based on his inexperience, his name, and yes: his race.) If the superdelegates do what's right for the party and nominate Hillary Clinton, there's a much stronger chance we'll have a Democrat in the White House come 2009. What else matters?