Looking at the national popular vote, Hillary and Obama both have slight edges over McCain. Hillary beats him by a slightly larger margin but that doesn't really matter. We all know that a popular vote win--even if it's half-a-million votes--doesn't get you the keys to the White House.
What matters are the battleground states which give electoral votes to the Democrat or the Republican candidate. As I've told you previously, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are always the biggies. It's almost impossible for a Democrat to win a general election without taking two of those three states. So how do things stand in the most recent "polls of polls"?
- Florida: John McCain beats Hillary by 0.3 points. (That will of course swing one way and the other--probably several times--between now and November.) McCain beats Obama by 7.9 points. That would require a hell of a swing.
- Ohio: Hillary beats McCain by more than 6 points. Obama loses to McCain by 0.2 points.
- Pennsylvania: Hillary beats McCain by more than 8 points. Obama's lead currently stands at less than 2 points.
The whole idea of having super-delegates is to make sure Democrats have the best nominee in November if the primaries and caucuses don't get either candidate to the magic number of delegates. If the super-delegates don't put Hillary in the general election, they are defeating their entire purpose.
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