Monday, May 19, 2008

Super-delegates are about to super-fuck us

I'm looking again at the "polls of polls" and Hillary Clinton is still clearly more electable against John McCain than Barack Obama.  There is still every indication that Democratic Super-delegates who care about this country (as opposed to only caring about their own re-elections) should swing the nomination to Hillary Clinton.

Looking at the national popular vote, Hillary and Obama both have slight edges over McCain.  Hillary beats him by a slightly larger margin but that doesn't really matter.  We all know that a popular vote win--even if it's half-a-million votes--doesn't get you the keys to the White House.

What matters are the battleground states which give electoral votes to the Democrat or the Republican candidate.  As I've told you previously, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are always the biggies.  It's almost impossible for a Democrat to win a general election without taking two of those three states.  So how do things stand in the most recent "polls of polls"?
  • Florida:  John McCain beats Hillary by 0.3 points.  (That will of course swing one way and the other--probably several times--between now and November.)  McCain beats Obama by 7.9 points.  That would require a hell of a swing.
  • Ohio:  Hillary beats McCain by more than 6 points.  Obama loses to McCain by 0.2 points.
  • Pennsylvania:  Hillary beats McCain by more than 8 points.  Obama's lead currently stands at less than 2 points.
There are lots of other states with plenty of electoral votes but those three are ultra-important.  Hillary and Obama perform similarly in polls of other battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, New York, and Texas.  Massachusetts popped into my mind for some reason so I checked that states polls before any of the others.  Hillary beats McCain there by almost 18.5 points!  But McCain creams Obama by almost eight

The whole idea of having super-delegates is to make sure Democrats have the best nominee in November if the primaries and caucuses don't get either candidate to the magic number of delegates.  If the super-delegates don't put Hillary in the general election, they are defeating their entire purpose.

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